ETS1 & ETS2: Anticipating the Tax Impact of Carbon on Your Transportation Operations

Why Transportation Is Becoming a Major Financial Issue

Transportation is a key climate issue (in France, it is the top emitting sector, according to figures cited during the webinar). But with the ETS, it also becomes a budgetary issue: if carbon costs are factored in in an opaque or imprecise manner, they can lead to unjustified additional costs and penalize the most efficient organizations.

Early feedback from the maritime sector highlighted a major concern: when the ETS is “buried” under general surcharges, transparency is lost and it becomes difficult to verify the invoice. The challenge, for both shippers and service providers, is therefore to avoid a repeat of this scenario in the trucking industry.

The key requirement: a compliant and auditable measurement (ISO 14083)

The webinar emphasizes one key principle: when it comes to taxation and costs, data must be calculated in a precise, traceable, and auditable manner. The ISO 14083 standard (freight transport) is presented as the reference framework to follow to ensure the reliability of emissions calculations and the integrity of audits.

This changes everything: a “sector average” may suffice for an initial estimate, but it does not allow us to distinguish actual performance (energy, loading, empty runs, etc.) or to negotiate ETS provisions with confidence based on indisputable facts.

Case Studies: Carrefour and Sodiaal

Two case studies illustrate the benefits of more robust data.

• In particular, Carrefour agrees on the need to move away from “in-house” calculations that are open to little debate, and on the value of carefully measuring certain parameters (e.g., empty runs) to manage and challenge performance. Order-of-magnitude estimates of projected ETS costs are cited to raise awareness of the potential impacts.
• Sodiaal explains the shift from a system based on Excel consolidations (which are not very responsive) to more frequent reporting, which makes it possible to optimize workflows, hold service providers accountable, and support planning efforts (site selection, logistics scenarios).

Key Takeaways

• ETS2 is not “just a fuel surcharge”: it is a carbon-cost mechanism that must be justified, verifiable, and negotiable.
• Without reliable data, we risk paying “by the seat of our pants” and losing the ability to reward actual performance.
• 2026 is the year to get things in order: data collection, quality, methodology, contractual provisions, trajectory, and management.

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